Thursday, November 4
The War Room
Tennessee offense vs. Miami defense
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TITANS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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25
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Pass
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10
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Tot. Yds.
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15
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Scoring
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9
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Int's allowed
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5
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Sacks allowed
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9
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DOLPHINS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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2
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vs. Pass
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4
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Total yds. allowed
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2
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# of Ints.
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8
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# of Sacks
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18
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Turnover differential
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-2
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Heading into the toughest part of their schedule, against teams with top secondaries in the league, the Titans are going to have to get back to establishing a steady and reliable run game. One reason that Tennessee has had trouble running the ball with consistency is because their formations and looks have been tipping the defense to the play call. In the first part of the season, every time FB Lorenzo Neal would enter the game it would be a running play. Tennessee is beginning to expand the playbook and find more plays to run with Neal in the game. The fullback has been a nice addition to the team as a punishing blocker and he has proven capable of carrying the ball as well.
The biggest matchup problem for the Titans offensively is speed. Miami's defense is extraordinarily fast up front and is blessed with two of the most athletic and confident cornerbacks in the game, Terrell Buckley and Sam Madison. WRs Yancey Thigpen and Kevin Dyson are very capable deep threats that are going to have to make their presence felt. The key on Sunday is going to be the receivers' ability to challenge Miami deep. Even if the Titans do not get a lot of yardage out of the vertical passing game, just the threat and the fact that the corners are twenty to thirty yards downfield, opens up the Titans offense and will give them much more room to work underneath.
Last week, Steve McNair's timing was not back, but with one game under his belt and another week to prepare, the offense should start clicking again. Tennessee is going to have to be very efficient in their short-to-intermediate passing game, taking advantage of a defense that congests the middle of the field and loves to gamble on the blitz.
Miami is going to challenge Tennessee up front to test McNair's ability to get rid of the ball. Even though McNair looked a bit rusty last week, it seems as if the time spent on the sideline has helped the quarterback. He seems more in control of the offense and knows where to go with the ball on hot-reads. Sometimes quarterbacks can benefit from watching games and seeing the action from a coach's perspective. The game seems to have slowed down a bit for McNair and it would not be a surprise if he flourished in this offense for the remainder of the season.
Miami offense vs. Tennessee defense
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DOLPHINS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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17
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Pass
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11
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Tot. Yds.
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11
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Scoring
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7
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Int's allowed
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7
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Sacks allowed
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17
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TITANS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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20
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vs. Pass
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25
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Total yds. allowed
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23
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# of Ints.
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7
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# of Sacks
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18
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Turnover differential
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+1
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The Titans changed up their defensive philosophy last week to confuse the reads of Kurt Warner by using a lot of seven-and-eight defensive back sets. This will not be the case against Miami. The Titans will revert back to their usual "46" defensive scheme and look to put tremendous pressure on the Dolphins up front.
QB Damon Huard has not made a lot of mistakes when faced with pressure, but he has also not shown the ability to beat the blitz. The Dolphins are going to once again turn to the running game to decide the tempo on Sunday. Jimmy Johnson is pleased with the steady improvement of the play of rookies Cecil Collins and J.J. Johnson.
The Dolphins feel they will be able to neutralize the blitz by running the ball off-tackle to the strong side against the "46" pressure. Tennessee likes to stack the strong side on the blitz, splitting the tackle and tight end with a rush from the defensive end and outside linebacker. Miami is confident in its offensive tackles (Richmond Webb and James Brown) and tight end Troy Drayton to redirect the rush and open a hole for the back to catch the defense upfield.
Miami is going to have to be able to run the ball with consistency of first and second downs Sunday to avoid disaster. The Dolphins are converting 38% of their third downs under Huard (20-of-52), and the Titans will prey on Huard if they get him in third-and-long situations.
The Titan's defense is designed to force teams into throwing down the field. By using seven-and-eight men in the pass rush, it obviously leaves a lot of pressure on the corners, but it also gives the quarterback limited time to wait for his receivers to come out of their breaks. So many times against the Titans, teams are forced into third-and-ten situations where all they can do is dump the ball off underneath to pick up a couple of yards and then are forced to punt. The only way to beat this pressure cooker of a defense is to ground it out and wear down the front seven.
Two things happen if the Titans establish a run game on Miami: 1) Neutralizes Miami's pass rush, which will limit mistakes and hopefully turnovers. 2) Wears down the Dolphins lightening-fast defense and provides a chance to make some big plays in the fourth quarter against a much slower unit.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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TEN
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MIA
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Punt return avg.
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16
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3
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Kickoff return avg.
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31
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2
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Opp. punt return avg.
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14
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26
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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14
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20
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Time of possession
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17
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1
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Al Del Greco has been quiet this season, only attempting twelve field goals, but connecting on ten of those. Craig Hentrich has been a consistent punter, averaging 43.1 yards per punt, but only landing 16 of 40 inside the opponents twenty yard line. Tennessee's coverage units have been steady this season, allowing 9.1 yards per punt return and 21.1 yards per kickoff return without yielding a touchdown. Olindo Mare is the league's top field goal kicker, connecting on 25 of 27 for the season with a long of 54. Nate Jacquet has established himself as an explosive punt return man, averaging 19.3 yards per return with a long of 45 yards. Brock Marion has also exploded onto the scene as the Dolphins kickoff return man, averaging 27.3 yards per return with a long of 93 yards.
Key matchups
Miami OT James Brown vs. Tennessee DE Jevon Kearse
The Titan's "46" defense is designed to put great pressure on the offensive tackles. Kearse has been getting great pressure by himself, but there is usually an outside linebacker to his side working upfield as well, which causes for some assignment breakdowns. Brown is an athletic offensive tackle with good raw talent, but he has frequent mental lapses. Brown needs to know his assignments on Sunday and be able to protect Damon Huard from the rush off the edge.
Miami RB Cecil Collins vs. Tennessee OLBs Eddie Robinson and Joe Bowden
Cecil Collins has done most of his damage as a runner taking advantage of cutback lanes. The Titans outside linebackers cannot afford to break contain and leave a backside hole open for Collins to exploit.
Tennessee OGs Benji Olson and Zach Piller vs. Miami DTs Tim Bowens and Daryl Gardener
This interior matchup will be the difference in the game. The Miami defensive tackles are the core of this offense, plugging up holes in the middle and allowing for Zach Thomas to take advantage of blitz lanes as a pass rusher and run free in pursuit against the run. Olson and Pillar need to handle their mathcups without help form OC Bruce Matthews in order to let the center get out and work to chip Thomas or pick him up on the blitz.
Tennessee will win if...
QB Steve McNair is a playmaker on offense without turning the ball over. It is obvious that McNair brings a lot more to the table offensively for the Titans than did Neil O'Donnell, but McNair also needs to become more like O'Donnell in the sense that he needs to be more of a caretaker with the football. The Titans offense needs McNair's flair and big-play ability, but they also need him to limit his mistakes and turnovers.
QB Steve McNair makes the Dolphins pay on the outside for playing nine men in the middle of the field. Miami, as usual, will live and die with the man-to-man matchups outside with its cornerbacks. McNair needs work the ball to his receivers on the perimeter down the field and force Sam Madison and Terrell Buckley into giving up the big play or committing a pass interference.
CB's Denard Walker and Samari Rolle hold up in the "46" defense. In this aggressive defensive scheme, Rolle and Walker are left alone in many situations on the outside versus the opponent's receivers. The Titans are going to have to get to Damon Huard to limit the time in coverage, and give Rolle and Walker a chance to be aggressive in their approach.
Miami will win if...
QB Damon Huard recognizes and exploits the single man coverage versus the blitz. The Titans "46" defense is designed to put great pressure on opposing quarterbacks and force them to make split-second decisions with the ball. Huard has had a difficult time when teams get to him, and in most cases he will take the sack or try to tuck the ball and run. Huard is going to have to sit in the pocket and make the quick hot reads if the Dolphins are going to catch the Titans out of position and move the ball down the field.
CB's Sam Madison and Terrell Buckley shut down the Tennessee receivers on the outside. It's business as usual for Madison and Buckley. They will be forced into mostly man-to-man matchups on the outside against Tennessee's receivers, and will have to hold up without much help form the safeties in the middle.
The Dolphin receivers work a lot of underneath crossing routes. Miami, against the pressure of the Titans defense, is going to have to put their receivers in motion and run a lot of quick crossing routes and slants to give Damon Huard an immediate option off the line of scrimmage.
The War Room edge
This game shapes up as a playoff preview in Miami on Sunday, featuring two teams that are atop their respective divisions. Miami is placed at a disadvantage without starting quarterback Dan Marino behind center, but great defense and the luxury of playing at home should even things up. The Titans are coming off an impressive win over the previously-undefeated St. Louis Rams, and proved that they are capable of playing with anyone in the league. Tennessee is going to need a big day out of QB Steve McNair in order to take advantage of some of the opportunities that the defense is going to present them, but Miami could be too tough at home to steal one. In this low scoring affair, expect the Dolphins to squeak one out with great defense and a couple of big plays on the offensive side of the ball.
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