The Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Olaf Kolzig
The Question: Do the Pens have enough to get past Kolzig?

The Penguins

Olaf Kolzig

Jagr changes everything
If the playoffs were to begin today, the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins, who play Thursday night, would meet in the first round of the playoffs. But without Jaromir Jagr, now suffering from a bruised back, Pittsburgh's chances against Olaf Kolzig and the Washington Capitals are pretty dim.

Jagr changes the complexion of the team and is the biggest single threat in the league. But the Penguins are a fragile team with a roster that was reworked at the trade deadline. They got more skill and toughness on the blue line, which they needed, and added Ron Tugnutt, a quality person and a solid goalie. But it comes down to scoring goals and how much the Penguins can control the puck, and Jagr's absence hinders Pittsburgh's offensive opportunities against a red-hot goalie like Kolzig.

Even with Jagr in the lineup, Pittsburgh is still vulnerable. The Penguins could upset Washington because anyone can upset anyone. But they can't sustain a high level of play because they lack overall depth. The Capitals, meanwhile, can get through Pittsburgh with or without Jagr because of Kolzig, confidence and defense.

With the way they have played since Jan. 1, the Capitals have proven to be no flukes. They have great confidence and belief in their ability to win. Kolzig has returned to the zone he was in two years ago when the Capitals went to the Cup finals. His experience didn't result in a championship, but Kolzig knows what it takes to grind out playoff games and play at a high level. Based on how he has played this season, he can return to that level. He has the great mentality that the great goaltenders have, which bodes well for the Capitals' chances of returning to the finals.

There is no formula for how goalies get on a roll or everyone would be on one. A feeling comes over you that becomes confidence. Goalies are part boxer and part golfer. Boxers get knocked down sometimes. They need the mentality to get back up. The golf analogy is based on the pure mechanics and technique of the position. Goalies study film and break down what they are doing. Plus, there is nothing behind them but the net, so they are in a whole different world -- all alone, like a boxer and a golfer.

Kolzig seems to be experiencing the right blend of feel and mechanics. I'm hesitant to say Kolzig could be the most dangerous player in the playoffs because all goaltenders are vulnerable. For any goalie, things can change quickly, in the space of a few shots. But the aura that goalies like Patrick Roy and Dominik Hasek have created comes from pressure goaltending. Because Kolzig has been to the finals, he is probably right in line with those goalies in that he will be tough to beat.

Brian Engblom is a color commentator and analyst for ESPN's NHL coverage. He played 11 seasons in the NHL.