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 Sunday, December 26
Jets look like contenders, not Miami
 
By Ron Jaworski
Special to ESPN.com

 With seven starters on injured reserve, including arguably the league MVP last year in Vinny Testaverde, the New York Jets have had every reason to struggle. But if Bill Parcells can get his team to 8-8, it probably would be his best coaching job, even though he has won Super Bowls. He has done an amazing job just keeping his team competitive in light of all the things that have happened.

Keyshawn Johnson
Keyshawn Johnson has had a Pro Bowl season despite the loss of Vinny Testaverde.
Ray Lucas has certainly been a surprise to everyone, including the Jets coaching staff. While not making any glaring mistakes, he has good mobility and the ability to make plays outside the pocket. For a young quarterback, Lucas has been consistent and solid. The presence of Keyshawn Johnson as the go-to receiver has been a tremendous help to Lucas.

Aside from Lucas, the Jets are also running the ball very well. Curtis Martin is having a rock-solid season. While the Jets offensive linemen aren't overpowering, they are athletic and will use a lot of angle blocks and counter treys. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis has put the linemen in good positions to get favorable blocking angles and open up holes for Martin.

Unlike the Jets, the Miami Dolphins might be playoff bound, but their offense has been much less effective and more predictable. When the Dolphins and the Jets met two weeks ago, the Jets' two interceptions -- one by Omar Stoutmire and the other by Aaron Glenn -- came in third-down situations when the Jets anticipated the routes that the Dolphins were going to run. They defended the first-down marker and had six guys underneath in coverage, which is very unusual.

Predictability has hindered the Dolphins offense. They do not use enough motion and formation variation and have a very limited package in their running game. That puts more pressure on Dan Marino to carry the burden of Miami's offensive success.

NUMBERS TO KNOW
24 and 25: The respective NFL rankings of the Dolphins and Jets offenses this season.

9: Return touchdowns surrendered by Miami this season.

7: Interceptions by Dolphins CB Sam Madison, equaling the number of TD receptions by Jets wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson.

Jimmy Johnson feels he can use his talent to beat teams man-on-man, but the Dolphins can't. He has probably overestimated his offensive talent. I have no problem with a team having a conviction to the running game, but it's not working for Miami. Johnson has been obstinate, refusing to change and try new things. The Dolphins don't run outside or use many counter treys. They prefer a power running game that really lacks the personnel to execute consistently.

In the first matchup, Jets defensive coordinator Bill Belichick knew the predictability of the Dolphins offense and played it very well. It's unusual to rush four, play six underneath and one safety deep. But they played the situation and the Dolphins' tendencies successfully. And, after watching film from last week's Miami game against San Diego, Belichick will try to do the same thing.

Here are the keys to Monday night's game for each team:

New York Jets
1. Take out Thomas: Teams have been able to run against the Miami defense on the edges, at defensive ends Rich Owens and Trace Armstrong, with Jason Taylor banged up. Although Zach Thomas has had a fantastic year, he can still be blocked if the Jets can get a body on him.

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Jets QB Ray Lucas: After leading two fourth-quarter comebacks in the last two weeks, Lucas has solidified his position as the team's backup QB in 2000.

Jets RB Curtis Martin: Without the threat of a dangerous passing attack, Martin still has racked up Pro Bowl-type numbers, rushing for more than 1,200 yards and catching 40 passes. However, even with those numbers, he won't be going to Hawaii.

Jets LB Mo Lewis: A rare bright spot for a Jets defense that ranks a surprising 23rd in the NFL, Lewis leads the team in sacks with 5½ and forced fumbles with four.

Dolphins QB Dan Marino: This might be the 17-year veteran's final prime-time game and his last start in front of the Miami fans.

Dolphins K Olindo Mare: With 37 field goals, Mare needs just one more to set an NFL record for the most in a season.

Dolphins LB Zach Thomas: If you want to know where the ball is, follow Thomas. With 149 tackles, he has 62 more than any other Dolphin.

It's tough to get to Thomas because of his athleticism. But if the Jets can engage him, Thomas can be moved because he is an active player, not a strong one. The Dolphins like to allow Thomas the freedom to run and make plays. The Jets will run on the edges and try to cut Thomas off from making the plays. The uncovered lineman will go after him. It could be the center or the guard in an odd front, depending on what side the Jets run to.

2. Wayne must be a pain: Wayne Chrebet still isn't quite 100 percent healthy from the broken ankle he suffered early in the season, although he has been effective running possession routes over the middle. He doesn't have the quickness and acceleration he had a year ago. That has hurt the Jets a bit. He can still be very effective in a possession situation. Any contribution from Chrebet will be a bonus for the Jets offense.

3. Dan can't be the man: The Jets will have to pressure Marino with their front four. Marino still has an ability to read the blitz and get rid of the football, and I don't think the Jets will want to take a gamble of rushing six players, taking the safety out of center field, leaving him man-on-man and giving up the big play. They need to pressure Marino without having to blitz.

However, the Jets are last in the NFL in sacks with 25. The key to pressure is not always winning man-to-man matchups. It's breaking down the blocking schemes with slants, stunts and zone blitzes. Although the Jets aren't a big zone-blitz team, I think the surprise element is something the Dolphins will have to prepare for. When a team is struggling to pressure the quarterback, you can expect almost anything from a creative defensive coordiator like Belichick.

Miami Dolphins
1. Madison manhandling Keyshawn: The Dolphins love to play that high-pressure, man-to-man, bump-and-run coverage. Sam Madison didn't have a good game against Keyshawn in the first matchup. Johnson had 11 catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Madison must win the rematch. I'm sure he is looking forward to another round with Keyshawn.

2. Deep passes to Martin: The Dolphins need to be more aggressive and open up the offense. They can't rely on a running game that has been nonexistent. They need to create some matchups with Tony Martin involved. He has been invisible at times.

In the first meeting with the Jets, Martin had two catches for 12 yards. He is the speed and deep threat, and the Dolphins have to use him in the passing game. The Dolphins are playing a short, high-percentage passing game, but they aren't getting the big yardage and points they need to win games. Martin has been underutilized.

3. Change is good: It's clear the Dolphins will have to change whatever tendencies they have to offset Belichick's game plan. He will mix things up. He will play the 3-4, the 4-3, five linebackers and six defensive backs. He looks for things that will cause confusion to a team's blocking schemes.

He will probe an offense, showing different looks until he finds something that you have trouble with. The Dolphins can't make it an easy game for Belichick to coach. They must have an entirely different strategy than the one they employed against the Jets two weeks ago.

Former NFL quarterback Ron Jaworski appears each week on ESPN's Monday Night Countdown and Edge NFL Matchup. He breaks down the Monday Night Football matchup each week on ESPN.com.

 


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