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| Sunday, December 26 | |||||||||||||
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With seven starters on injured reserve, including arguably the league MVP last year in Vinny Testaverde, the New York Jets have had every reason to struggle. But if Bill Parcells can get his team to 8-8, it probably would be his best coaching job, even though he has won Super Bowls. He has done an amazing job just keeping his team competitive in light of all the things that have happened.
Aside from Lucas, the Jets are also running the ball very well. Curtis Martin is having a rock-solid season. While the Jets offensive linemen aren't overpowering, they are athletic and will use a lot of angle blocks and counter treys. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis has put the linemen in good positions to get favorable blocking angles and open up holes for Martin. Unlike the Jets, the Miami Dolphins might be playoff bound, but their offense has been much less effective and more predictable. When the Dolphins and the Jets met two weeks ago, the Jets' two interceptions -- one by Omar Stoutmire and the other by Aaron Glenn -- came in third-down situations when the Jets anticipated the routes that the Dolphins were going to run. They defended the first-down marker and had six guys underneath in coverage, which is very unusual. Predictability has hindered the Dolphins offense. They do not use enough motion and formation variation and have a very limited package in their running game. That puts more pressure on Dan Marino to carry the burden of Miami's offensive success.
Jimmy Johnson feels he can use his talent to beat teams man-on-man, but the Dolphins can't. He has probably overestimated his offensive talent. I have no problem with a team having a conviction to the running game, but it's not working for Miami. Johnson has been obstinate, refusing to change and try new things. The Dolphins don't run outside or use many counter treys. They prefer a power running game that really lacks the personnel to execute consistently. In the first matchup, Jets defensive coordinator Bill Belichick knew the predictability of the Dolphins offense and played it very well. It's unusual to rush four, play six underneath and one safety deep. But they played the situation and the Dolphins' tendencies successfully. And, after watching film from last week's Miami game against San Diego, Belichick will try to do the same thing. Here are the keys to Monday night's game for each team:
New York Jets
It's tough to get to Thomas because of his athleticism. But if the Jets can engage him, Thomas can be moved because he is an active player, not a strong one. The Dolphins like to allow Thomas the freedom to run and make plays. The Jets will run on the edges and try to cut Thomas off from making the plays. The uncovered lineman will go after him. It could be the center or the guard in an odd front, depending on what side the Jets run to. 2. Wayne must be a pain: Wayne Chrebet still isn't quite 100 percent healthy from the broken ankle he suffered early in the season, although he has been effective running possession routes over the middle. He doesn't have the quickness and acceleration he had a year ago. That has hurt the Jets a bit. He can still be very effective in a possession situation. Any contribution from Chrebet will be a bonus for the Jets offense. 3. Dan can't be the man: The Jets will have to pressure Marino with their front four. Marino still has an ability to read the blitz and get rid of the football, and I don't think the Jets will want to take a gamble of rushing six players, taking the safety out of center field, leaving him man-on-man and giving up the big play. They need to pressure Marino without having to blitz. However, the Jets are last in the NFL in sacks with 25. The key to pressure is not always winning man-to-man matchups. It's breaking down the blocking schemes with slants, stunts and zone blitzes. Although the Jets aren't a big zone-blitz team, I think the surprise element is something the Dolphins will have to prepare for. When a team is struggling to pressure the quarterback, you can expect almost anything from a creative defensive coordiator like Belichick.
Miami Dolphins 2. Deep passes to Martin: The Dolphins need to be more aggressive and open up the offense. They can't rely on a running game that has been nonexistent. They need to create some matchups with Tony Martin involved. He has been invisible at times. In the first meeting with the Jets, Martin had two catches for 12 yards. He is the speed and deep threat, and the Dolphins have to use him in the passing game. The Dolphins are playing a short, high-percentage passing game, but they aren't getting the big yardage and points they need to win games. Martin has been underutilized. 3. Change is good: It's clear the Dolphins will have to change whatever tendencies they have to offset Belichick's game plan. He will mix things up. He will play the 3-4, the 4-3, five linebackers and six defensive backs. He looks for things that will cause confusion to a team's blocking schemes. He will probe an offense, showing different looks until he finds something that you have trouble with. The Dolphins can't make it an easy game for Belichick to coach. They must have an entirely different strategy than the one they employed against the Jets two weeks ago.
Former NFL quarterback Ron Jaworski appears each week on ESPN's Monday Night Countdown and Edge NFL Matchup. He breaks down the Monday Night Football matchup each week on ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Monday preview: Jets at Dolphins Kreidler: Next season fits Bill War Room preview: Jets at Dolphins PFW: Q&A with Ray Lucas Baxter Bits: Dolphins at Jets Week 16 injury report Week 16 picks |