| | March 13
Young pitchers. We love their potential; we hate their inconsistency. We love their fastballs; we hate their inability to throw them over the plate.
One of the most interesting pitchers who fits this definition is Seattle's Gil Meche, who reached the majors last season at age 20 and went 8-4 with a 4.73 ERA in 15 starts. He became the first pitcher since Dwight Gooden in 1984 to jump from low Class A to the majors in one season and make that many starts.
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Rumor Central
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The Ramiro Mendoza rumors continue to spread more rapidly than Shawn Kemp on a road trip, but after Eddie Yarnall allowed 10 runs in the first inning in Sunday's 14-3 loss to the Blue Jays, the Yankees probably have even more concerns about their rotation.
And perhaps they should. David Cone and Roger Clemens are both 37 years old -- only once before has a team had two non-knuckleball starters that old make at least 30 starts in the same season. That team was the 1984 Phillies, with Steve Carlton and Jerry Koosman.
Last week's rumor involved Matt Stairs. This week's involves Jim Edmonds. We still say the Yankees should Mendoza and insert Nick "The Stick" Johnson into the DH role.
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On the surface, Meche had a good debut in the majors. His ERA was less than the league average of 4.86 and was better than new teammate Aaron Sele, who won 18 games for the Rangers. Opposing batters hit just .237 off him, a testament to his 95-mph fastball.
However, there was one glaring mark on his record: 57 walks against 47 strikeouts. While the Mariners project Meche as a future ace and some scouts like him better than teammate Freddy Garcia, we wonder: How many pitchers develop into quality starters after debuting with a strikeout/walk ratio that poor in a significant number of innings?
Our gut instinct says most aces -- or near aces -- are pretty good right from the beginning of their careers, guys like Clemens, Mussina, Gooden, Saberhagen, Martinez, Cone, Hershiser. Even Randy Johnson had a 25/7 SO/K ratio in his initial callup and 130/97 in his first season.
With help from loyal ESPN.com readers Bill Schuyler and Scott Deb˙e, we conducted a little research to see if our gut is correct.
Schuyler did a quick survey of current pitchers and found the following:
Dustin Hermanson: 22 walks, 19 strikeouts in 31.2 IP -- although Hermanson's totals came in relief and is a smaller sample size than we want. In his first year as a starter in 1997, he was better than 2-to-1 (136 K's, 66 walks).
John Smoltz: Smoltz made 12 starts for the Braves in 1988 at age 21, going 2-7 with a 5.47 ERA. He had 37 K's and 33 walks in 64 innings. A pretty good comparison for Meche due to his age and innings, although Smoltz' ratio was still better than even. Smoltz developed quickly -- he was an All-Star in 1989.
Pat Hentgen: Hentgen pitched 50.1 innings for the Jays in 1992, mostly in relief. He had 32 walks and 37 K's. He won 19 games in 1993.
Jamie Moyer: A different kind of pitcher than Meche, Moyer struggled in 1986, when he made 16 starts for the Cubs. He had 42 walks and 45 K's in 87.1 innings. He went 7-4 that year but didn't have another winning season until 1993.
Hmm. Not a lot of guys on the list. Smoltz and Hentgen are good comparisons because they were hard-throwing right-handers and developed quickly.
Deb˙e did a quick scroll through the Baseball Encyclopedia to seek out some Meche comps. Here's what he reports: "Meche's numbers (IP, ERA, H, BB, K), combined with his youth, are indeed uncommon. They are extremely uncommon since the 1950s. I ignored all pitchers until the '50s -- not many of those old-timers had good K/BB ratios."
Deb˙e looked at pitchers with last names M through R only. Here's what he found:
Mike Moore: Moore, another Mariner product, went 7-14, 5.36 as a 22-year-old rookie in 1982, with 79 walks and 73 K's. He eventually developed into a quality pitcher.
Jack Morris: In his first stint with the Tigers in 1977, Morris had a 28/23 K/BB ratio in 45.2 innings. The following season, at age 23, he had a 48/48 ratio in 106 innings. In 1979, he won 17 games.
Mike Norris: Remember him? At age 21, he had 56 walks and 44 K's for the A's in 1976. It took him a few years to develop, but he went 22-9, 2.53 under Billy Martin in 1980 and finished second in the AL Cy Young vote. However, Billy Burnout also did him in with 24 complete games that year and he was never the same.
Finally, a trio from the '50s and '60s: Camilio Pascual (174 career wins) had a 60/61 K/BB ratio at age 20. Billy Pierce (211 career wins) was 36/51 K/BB ratio in his first stint at age 21. At age 20, Pedro Ramos (117 career wins) was at 39 walks, 34 K's.
That doesn't seem like a lot of pitchers. For every Jack Morris, there are probably a dozen Scott Scudders.
One last point. We thought we'd check on some of the top current young pitchers to see how they fared in their first callups, as this provides a more similar offensive environment to the one Meche has to deal with.
Kevin Millwood was a 42/21 K/BB ratio in 51.1 innings for the Braves in '97.
Bartolo Colon had a 5.65 ERA for Cleveland in 94 innings in '97, but had a 66/45 K/BB ratio.
Brad Radke was 75/47 with the Twins in '95.
Meche's teammate, Freddy Garcia, won 17 games last year with a 170/90 ratio.
Pittsburgh rookie Kris Benson also had a fine season a year ago. His K/BB ratio was 129/50.
Russ Ortiz won 18 games last year. He debuted with the Giants in '98 with a 75/46 ratio.
Eric Milton trailed only Pedro Martinez among AL pitchers in baserunners per nine innings last year. As a rookie, he had 107 K's, 70 walks.
All those guys, if they stay healthy, should have productive careers. And all started with far better K/BB ratios than Meche.
So, what kind of career is Meche destined for? It's hard to tell. He's an extreme case, both in the age at which he reached the majors and his mix of numbers from his rookie season. Scouts may love his fastball, but if he doesn't improve his control this year, he probably won't develop into a top starter.
Injury update
Rusty Greer returned to Dallas on Sunday to have his right ankle examined. Greer declined to talk about his condition, but the Dallas Morning News reported that Greer previously acknowledged he may have bone chips or spurs in the ankle, which could eventually require surgery.
Wilson Alvarez cut short his workout on Sunday when his shoulder continued to have tightness.
Montreal's Mike Thurman has stopped throwing after tests revealed a swollen tendon in his right arm. He is likely to begin the season on the disabled list.
Kerry Ligtenberg has been throwing well for the Braves after missing last year following "Tommy John" surgery.
Brady Anderson missed Sunday's game with a problem in his left leg. After icing his knee on Saturday, the leg remained numb. Anderson appeared to be in obvious pain as he tried to walk around Sunday.
The Rangers have said Justin Thompson won't pitch until May, but Thompson was so impressed with the way he threw off a mound recently that he asked the club to accelerate his schedule.
Eric Davis is still recovering from rotator cuff surgery and may start playing games soon. He may or not be ready for the start of the season and rumors have the Cardinals interested in Anaheim's Jim Edmonds.
Position battles
White Sox shortstop Mike Caruso had a miserable sophomore campaign, hitting .250 -- a soft .250, as his slugging and on-base percentages were both below .300. He also led the AL with 14 caught stealings (against just 12 successful steals.)
It prompted the Sox to acquire Milwaukee's Jose Valentin, who has impressed manager Jerry Manuel so far in camp. Unless he gets injured, look for Valentin to be the starting shortstop with Caruso headed to Triple-A to work on developing his game.
Fantasy corner
A couple of players to watch:
Padres righty Brian Boehringer has been impressive so far and allowed the Angels just two singles in four scoreless innings over the weekend. In 11 starts last season after moving to the rotation, Boehringer went 4-4 with a 3.21 ERA.
The Rangers had signed Cuban national team second baseman Jorge "The Spider" Diaz to possibly compete for the starting job, but the INS refused a work visa for Diaz. That leaves Luis Alicea and Frank Catalanatto fighting for the second-base job. Catalanatto would fill the job nicely -- last season, he had a .458 slugging percentage, more than respectable for a second baseman. He's not a Gold Glove candidate but is reliable enough. He would hit 15-20 home runs if given 450 at-bats.
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ALSO SEE
Previous Rights (and Wrongs) of Spring
ESPN.com's spring training 2000 coverage
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