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Friday, April 19
 
Location critical against Bagwell, Berkman

By Tom Candiotti
Special to ESPN.com

Editor's Note: Each week ESPN analyst Tom Candiotti will write a scouting report on a hitter or hitters in an important weekend series. The following is the former knuckleballer's book on Houston Astros sluggers Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman as they get set to face San Francisco Giants starter Livan Hernandez on Friday.

Lance Berkman
Lance Berkman is tied with Barry Bonds for the major-league lead in home runs with eight.
Strengths
Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman form perhaps the best hitting tandem in baseball. Bagwell. is a great run producer who thrives on RBI situations, while Berkman might be the best young hitter in baseball today.

Bagwell can hit off-speed pitches just as well as a fastball. He loves to pull the ball. He has very quick hips that enable him to open up and handle the inside fastball. Bagwell is also a great guess hitter. When he can eliminate pitches, he becomes super dangerous at the plate.

Berkman, a switch-hitter, will just concentrate on the left side in his matchup with Hernandez. Berkman uses the whole field. He is a line-drive hitter with surprising power to all fields. He also plays in a very hitter-friendly park, which adds to his great offensive numbers.

Unlike Bagwell, who likes to guess, he seems to just recognize the pitch and hit it. I've seen Berkman hit balls low and away for home runs to left field, plus high fastballs and breaking balls.

Weaknesses
I have seen Bagwell on occasion be a little vulnerable to a high fastball with good velocity. At times he will get himself in trouble by guessing pitches. If you see him take an ugly hack, that is why. He will also chase breaking balls low and away once the pitcher gets ahead in the count. He doesn't have great discipline at the plate and will go off the plate to hit a certain pitch.

Berkman, meanwhile, seems to have fewer weaknesses to exploit and hits everything. He is an impressive young hitter.

Best approach
What makes Hernandez successful? It certainly isn't his stuff. He has only an average fastball, so he isn't striking fear in any hitter. He has a nice curve, slider and change, but nothing eye-opening. Hernandez is the classic example of a pitcher who must locate to pitch well. He cannot live over the middle of the plate with his fastball or it will be a short night for him.

He is a cagey pitcher. Hernandez throws changeups in fastball counts and has the ability to slow a hitter's bat speed with an assortment of breaking pitches. He will throw any one of his pitches in any count or situation. When he gets a hitter looking off speed, he will throw a fastball that suddenly looks 95 mph to a hitter.

He gets himself in trouble when he can't locate his pitches with precision. Pitchers with great stuff can get away with bad location because hitters will always have trouble turning on a 98-mph fastball. Whenever you watch Hernandez pitch, watch the setup of the catcher. If he is hitting his target, he will probably have a good game. If he isn't hitting his target, it will be a "chuck and duck" day.

Like most young hitters, Berkman is very aggressive at the plate. He wants to hit. Hernandez will have to concentrate on pitching inside and then away. He will need to throw a lot of changeups and off-speed pitches to Berkman. He will try to make him chase pitches out of the strike zone. If Hernandez does not locate well against Berkman, he will pay dearly.

Bagwell will be looking for off-speed pitches from Hernandez. The sooner Hernandez realizes that and makes adjustments, the better. Bagwell likes to take the pitcher's best pitch away and will make Hernandez beat him with his fastball.

Hernandez would rather get hitters out with his off-speed pitches. In Bagwell's case, if he can attack him with inside fastballs his first at-bat, it might confuse Bagwell.

Overall
The key for Hernandez? Location, location, location. If Hernandez locates his fastball against Bagwell and his off-speed pitches to Berkman, then he should do well. If he doesn't it will be a short day.

ESPN baseball analyst Tom Candiotti won 151 games in 16 major-league seasons.







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