I've written a few articles that covered an individual player's chance to reach the Hall of Fame. I'm going to do that again here, although this time, I want to talk about the chances of a player who very few people think of as suited for Cooperstown. He's not someone who gets bandied about in these discussions, for a variety of reasons, even though he's been one of the game's greatest hitters for the last 10 years.

Gary Sheffield -- yes, Gary Sheffield -- has a good chance to become a Hall of Famer, and his performance to date makes him a worthy candidate.

	Gary Sheffield Right Field Atlanta Braves Profile
	CAREER STATISTICS GM HR RBI R OPS AVG 1636 323 1040 1006 915 .294

That may be a bit hard to swallow, not because Sheffield hasn't gotten it done at the plate, but because he's been at the center of more controversies than Madonna. He has pretty much admitted to tanking plays while with the Brewers. He was part of the two worst fire sales of the post-war era, the 1993 Padres and the post-championship Marlins. He held up his trade to the Dodgers in 1998 while he negotiated for more money -- admittedly, to compensate for moving from a no-tax state to a high-tax one -- and he alternately demanded to be traded or be given a contract extension in his last year with the Dodgers.

He's had a "Beyond the Glory" made about him. That says it all, no?

On the field, Sheffield has been a force. He's had an on-base percentage of .400 or better every season since 1995, and a slugging of .500 or better in every year since 1993. His career line coming into this year -- .295/.399/.521 -- is a good reflection of the combination of average, power and patience he's provided the last 10 years. He's stolen 170 bases at a 67 percent clip, with at least 10 swipes almost every year of his career.

As good as Sheffield has been, he does not turn up well according to some of the tools we use to measure Hall of Fame candidates. According to baseball-reference.com, Sheffield has just four points of Black Ink (league-leading performance) in his career, a ridiculously low total. He has just 74 points of Gray Ink (top 10 appearances), which is also well below Hall of Fame performance. His scores on the Hall of Fame Monitor (82) and Hall of Fame Standards test (38.1) do not mark him as a lock for immortality, either.

Part of this is Sheffield's fault: he has fought nagging injuries, and because of that has played in 150 games just twice, and in 140 games just six times in his 14-year career. (The strike in 1994-95 cost him some time, but would not have impacted these figures.) That's a lot of missed at-bats, and tools that rely on counting stats are going to give him some trouble. On the other hand, he's just 33, and has a number of years remaining to add to his career statistics.

There's another factor in play, though. While he has benefitted by playing in a hitters' era, Sheffield has spent his entire career is lousy hitting environments. His numbers, compared to those of his peers, are low because he has always been hurt by his home parks (factors courtesy stathead.com):

Year  Team(s>     Park(s)        Park Factor(s) Sheffield PA
1988  Milwaukee   County Stadium     1.04           89
1989  Milwaukee   County Stadium     0.91          405
1990  Milwaukee   County Stadium     0.96          547
1991  Milwaukee   County Stadium     1.08          203
1992  San Diego   Jack Murphy        1.17          618
1993  S.D./Fla.   Murphy/Robbie      0.95/1.02   282/275
1994  Florida     Joe Robbie Stadium 1.19          384
1995  Florida     Joe Robbie Stadium 0.95          274
1996  Florida     Joe Robbie Stadium 0.90          677
1997  Florida     Joe Robbie Stadium 0.94          582
1998  Fla./L.A.   Robbie/Dodger      0.89/0.82   166/383
1999  Los Angeles Dodger Stadium     0.93          663
2000  Los Angeles Dodger Stadium     0.84          612
2001  Los Angeles Dodger Stadium     0.80          618

Beyond the stats, we can examine a player's Hall of Fame qualifications using a series of questions developed by Bill James and known as "The Keltner List." The questions provide a framework for evaluating a player's career subjectively.

Sheffield doesn't do all that well by this standard. He was the best player on a championship team (Marlins, 1997), and for much of his career has been the best player on his teams. As mentioned above, there are reasons to believe that Sheffield was a better player than his stats indicate. But he hasn't had the opportunity to influence many pennant races, and he is certainly not among the top players not enshrined in the Hall of Fame, nor do his current statistics mark him as a Hall fo Famer. Just two players on his top-10 most comparables list (career numbers) are in the Hall of Fame: Larry Doby and Ralph Kiner, both of whom were somewhat special cases.

In looking at Sheffield, here are two interesting comparisons that can be made. According to baseball-reference.com, the 32-year-old player Sheffield is most comparable to his Dick Allen, which is as apt a parallel as you'll find. The two share more than just a stat line: each started as an infielder before moving to easier positions, each had a history of battling authority, and neither was treated well by the press. Both players were among the most dangerous right-handed hitters of their time.

Allen had his last great year at 32, and the sharp falloff after that point -- just 32 home runs and 218 hits in his final three seasons, with his career over at 35. As much as his personal problems or his relationship with the press, it is this end to his career than has kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

The other parallel I see is to the just-retired Jose Canseco. Like Sheffield, Canseco was a controversial player in his day, and like Sheffield, he fought injury problems and a poor defensive reputation. After age 32, Canseco would go on to hit another 111 home runs, and while he has a lot of baggage, he hit 462 home runs, was the best player on a championship team, and was even the best player in baseball for a little while. That's a strong Hall of Fame case, and very similar to the one Sheffield will eventually present.

The argument for Sheffield as a Hall of Famer is predicated on the idea that he will continue to perform at a high level, aping Canseco's career path and not Allen's. It's precisely because his last three years have been his most consistent stretch that I believe he will do so, driving his career numbers into the range where he becomes a serious candidate. Once he does that, a closer examination of his performance will show just how great he was for an extended period of time.

Gary Sheffield, Hall of Famer.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com.